Friday 31 July 2020

Rafale : Chimera or Brahamastra ; The Dunning Kruger Effect


 Rafale : Chimera or Brahamastra ; The Dunning Kruger Effect

The Media blitz and the kerfuffle that ensued over the last four days about the flight of first five Rafael ac from France to India numbs not only the mind but the innards and sinews as well. There is no denying that Rafale is a potent strategic multi-role jet fighter that will bolster India’s defence and combat capabilities against its hostile neighbours, Pakistan and China. Yet our Media with its penchant for going overboard by its virtuous sciolism and ignorance was soon ensnared by the Dunning-Kruger effect - a cognitive bias in which people wrongly overestimate their knowledge or ability in a specific area.

The game changer, the Brahamastra, the ultimate Beast that has not only changed the balance of power in Asia but overnight elevated India to a superpower status, were part of the initial volley. With all the information culled from ‘’Sources”, known only to them and the Satan, the Media were ready with a worthy panel of experienced veterans to bombard the public and give them first-hand experience of the apocalyptic powers of the Hydra.   

 Even before the ac took off from France there was a bevy of senior retired veterans and experienced Fighter pilots lined up to read the fine print and cull out through virtue of their experience every big or small, known or unknown bit about the ac. Many panelists overwhelmed by their maiden exposure to the arc lights fell hook, line and sinker to the anchor’s machinations and conveniently mired in the miasma of professional verbosity, tying it up in Borromean knots that caused loss of simple, robust and irrefutable facts.  Much of the Unknown unknowns ( a la Donald  Rumsfeld ) touted about the lethality of the ultimate beast, capable of annihilating China and Pakistan together in one fell swoop were a revelation to Dassault, the manufacturer.

While China and Pakistan are trembling in fear and suffering sleepless nights, the Frenchies, who till two days back were reveling in their world beater technology and business acumen for selling a fourth gen plus ac, after a hard toil of two decades, were peeved at being short changed and conned by India for a pittance, Rs 59000/- crore for 36 ac. (compare to the present cost of a SU – 30, approx. Rs 550 cr). To their chagrin, Indian media and the domain experts had identified and extolled on virtues of Rafale hitherto unknown to Dassault.

The manufacturer, sudden victim of  the profundity paradox, which it find hard to reconcile, is dazed at the inadequate knowledge it had about the apocalyptic powers of the Beast it handled for 30 years, which Indian media unraveled in two nights. They now regret undervaluing the Lord of the skies, the saviour, the Brahamastra, the panacea to overcome all territorial disputes with China and Pakistan, and selling it at a pittance to India.

 President Macaron will do well to declare a two days national mourning in France to overcome the guilt of losing the goose that will lay golden eggs aplenty (the Scalp, the Meteor, 12 tons of ordnance et al) to ameliorate Indian border troubles  for next forty years. A sentiment duly endorsed by the Raksha Mantri, "If anyone should be worried about or critical about this new capability ... it should be those who want to threaten our territorial integrity,'' he wrote on Twitter.

 In the frenzy to get first past the post, the Media conveniently forgot that this is not the first induction of a front line fighter in the IAF. In 1953 that India acquired its First Fighter Jet, Ouragan also known as Toofani from the same company Dassault which now delivered the Rafale. Wonder if a common man heard about it. It was perhaps known to the MoD and Air Hq and all others associated with the ferry.  Similar was the case with the induction of Hunters, Canberras, MiGs, Jaguars, Mirages, MiG 29 and Su - 30 over the years. Why these inductions didn’t create such brouhaha? Perhaps the Media was far saner without the urge of “Breaking News” every 30 seconds and everybody in the then India minded his own business.

Now that the first lot is in, one hopes that Media  and veteran domain experts will give breathing  time to the boys to settle and prepare for further inductions and training. There is much to be done before attaining the requisite op status for op deployment and engagement.